LINK: https://www.rt.com/op-ed/481307-turkey-idlib-russia-terrorists/

— "Turkish-backed militant attack in Idlib was doomed to fail – why launch it?"

Exactly. The title of Scott Ritter's article alone says everything: why launch such nonsensical military operation?

— "HTS units, backed by Turkish artillery, were able to overrun several Syrian Army positions, capturing a number of armored vehicles, before being driven back by airstrikes delivered by the Russian Air Force. The Turkish media has reported that at least two Turkish soldiers were killed in the fighting.”

Exactly. The Turkish Army, as promised by mad Erdogan, shelled Syrian positions in Neyrab and Saraqib, while advancing on the ground, together with al-Qaeda/HTS:

But then, of course, the Russian Air Force reacted, heavily bombing these 2 terrorist organizations (Turkish Army and al-Qaeda/HTS).

Unsurprisingly, at least 2 terrorists from the Turkish Army were killed, and many more would be killed if Erdogan doesn't give up his mad plan of conquering Syria.

— “What differentiates the previous failed counterattacks from the Nayrab operation is the presence of Turkish troops fighting alongside the HTS fighters, and the recent statements by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatening to launch a major offensive designed to throw the Syrian Army back to positions held at the time of the September 2018 Sochi agreement. At first blush, the Nayrab battle appears to represent the manifestation of Erdogan’s threat, the initial battle of a larger campaign designed to punish the Syrian Army and its Russian allies.”

Exactly, there's a big change now. Instead of sending only Turkish-backed al-Qaeda/HTS terrorists, now Erdogan is sending his own terrorists from the Turkish Terrorist Army.

This major change implies the possibility of a direct confrontation between Turkey and Russian, eventually leading to a major war.

— “There is one problem in such a scenario – the Russian Air Force. Russia has made it clear that it will not permit Turkey to launch air operations in Idlib. Moreover, the fact that the Russian Air Force was employed immediately to attack and defeat the Turkish/HTS offensive shows that Moscow has not ceded its control of Syrian air space. So long as Russian aircraft are operating in Idlib, no offensive action against the Syrian Army stands a chance of succeeding.”

Exactly. That's why Erdogan was dreaming about the US helping him, sending Patriot systems to the Turkish-Syrian border.

#Breaking
Turkey asks U.S. to deploy Patriot missiles to Syrian border
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Hard to believe but this is real newshttps://t.co/m0QBwuRlTv

— ilhan tanir (@WashingtonPoint) February 20, 2020

Here is where I disagree with those who have recently been arguing that Turkey is supposedly being used (by the US, the Europeans, or both) as the bait to attract Russians and Syrians into a new war.

No, Erdogan is alone in this game, and this game is a nonsensical absurd dumb example of neo-Ottoman imperialism.

Back to the subject, not only the US will not send Patriot systems to the border but, as expected, Russia stroke back, immediately, proving to Erdogan that he is utterly alone in this mad adventure.

Erdogan doesn't understand he is the foolish little brat who isolates himself by attacking in all directions:

If his fellow members of NATO do not come to rescue him, without Turkish Air force in the air supporting the Turkish Army advances on the ground, and with Russians in absolute control of Syrian airspace, of course, Erdogan's neo-Ottoman foolishness is doomed to fail.

Retreat or send Turkish to be slaughtered by the Russian Air Force... unless NATO members take the very unlikely decision to rescue Turkey under Article 5.

— “The Turkish military is fully aware of this reality, which begs the question: why launch an attack that was doomed to fail? One of the main unanswered questions for Turkey was how the Russian Air Force would respond to any attack involving Turkish troops and equipment. That question has now been answered. In carrying out the Nayrab attack, Turkey has escalated the situation almost to the level of direct Turkish-Russian combat. In the immediate aftermath of the Russian airstrikes against Turkish/HTS forces, the Turkish government issued a request to the US for Patriot anti-air missiles to help defend Idlib air space from the Russian Air Force. It is highly unlikely that such a request would be granted.”

Exactly. Why launch an attack that was doomed to fail?

Exactly. Erdogan was checking how Russian would react. He probably believes he has all the cards (Turkish Stream, buying S-400, etc), but the cards can be used by both in both senses.

Dumb Erdogan probably believes Turkey's strategic geographical location plus his links with both sides of the game (the US vs Russia) give him the power to act in total impunity. Nonsense!

Erdogan doesn't have the US and Russia on his hand. No. Actually, he is losing both, especially Russia (the most valuable for Turkey), if direct Turkish-Russian military confrontation escalates.

— “More probable is that, by engaging in such an escalation, Turkey might be gambling on Russia seeking to de-escalate to avoid any long-term damage to Turkish-Russian relations. One objective may be to obtain a new ceasefire agreement which could involve joint Turkish-Russian military patrols, similar to those underway in the Turkish-occupied Kurdish territory in northeastern Syria.”

It is possible, yes. But Russia won't buy it anymore. If NATO members do not come to rescue him, delusional Erdogan dreaming about winning the game against greater players with his great cards,… actually has no cards at all and will lose big!

No, no more Machiavellian de-escalations.

No. Turkey never respected the previous agreements and never tried to eliminate terrorism in Idlib. Turkey only seeks occupation and interference.

No, no more delays. Russia and Syria have the strength and the will necessary to finish with the Syrian war very soon. And for good!

— “While Russia may yet accede to a ceasefire, it would not do so unless Turkey were to provide guarantees that the HTS fighters in Idlib were disarmed and removed. Void of that, Russia has made it clear it will continue to support the Syrian Army in its efforts to restore control over the totality of Syrian sovereign territory. Unless Turkey is willing to risk full-scale war with Russia over Idlib, it appears Erdogan’s bluff has been called, yet again.”

Exactly. But, now, Russians are 100% sure that Turkey will never do it. While promising to help clean Idlib of terrorists, Erdogan actually flooded the region with terrorists armed and trained by the Turkish Army.

With no reaction from the West, given the Russian righteous stubbornness to end with terrorism in Syria as soon as possible, yes, Erdogan has to give up!

And yes, the Russian and the Syrian armies already resumed their attacks against al-Qaeda/HTS in Idlib. 

Viva Russia!

Viva Syria!

Luís Garcia, Thailand