INTRO - Delusional Approach, So So Approach or Pragmatic Approach?, by Luís Garcia
NOTE: figures in this part are from April 9 and April 10
Many media in the West are very picky when it comes to select figures for their reports about COVID-19. Many opt to show numbers of tests per capita, given the wrong impression that high rates of tests per million people in Western countries indicate a good job done tracking or fighting COVID-19.
The problem is, many Western nations have high figures of tests per million because they already have high figures of cases per million, thus only proving that those Western nations indeed let it spread like wildfire.
Furthermore, many countries have most of their COVID-19 cases concentrated in small areas, thus making this indicator quite irrelevant (look at Russian example, a 17 million square nation and 146 million citizens, with most of the cases concentrated in a single city, Moscow).
I mean, a country like Vietnam (with 97 million people) can have a low rate of tests per capita but, because Vietnamese cases are also concentrated in small specific areas, and it has only 257 cases, a low rate of tests per capita here does not necessarily mean a bad job done by the Vietnamese authorities. On the contrary, they have very high rates of tests per capita if only the populations of the affected areas are taken into consideration.
To make it easier, the best is to change to a more telling indicator: ratio of number of tests / positive results:
See, countries like Vietnam, Nepal or Botswana have an incredibly high ratio of number of tests / positive results. What does it mean?
It means that when Vietnamese authorities find a positive case, they check every person directly or indirectly related to that case, all neighbors, relatives, etc. They test many people in a specific area with a confirmed case, only to find out that there are none, on average. And, if they find one, they repeat the process.
For every 439 tests performed in Vietnam, 438 turn out negative and only one turns out positive. This high ratio tells us the Vietnamese authorities are having a very precise sense of the spreading, and are tracking very well the spreading. When they find one case, they invest in 400+ tests around that case, thus not letting it spread.
In France, on the contrary, for every 2 tests performed, 1 turns out positive. What does it tell us? It tells us that, probably, the more they test, the more they will find positive cases and, therefore, unlike in Vietnam, the situation is bad and the French authorities don't have yet a good sense of where are the persons infected with COVID-19. The new virus can be anywhere. Just do more testing and you have a 50% chance of finding more cases!
All this tells us that, the French fairly high rate of tests per capita is only proportional to the French high rate of confirmed cases, and it tells us absolutely nothing about the efficiency of French measures.
In conclusion, and as Paolo Tuzzi pointed out:
All the countries in the bottom half of the table must be testing only people with symptoms. It means they must have plenty of undetected contagions. These countries will take longer to get out of the epidemic because new patients with symptoms will keep popping up."
All the countries at the top seem to have a good sense of what is going on and where it is going on. They don't need a high rate of tests per capita only to confirm they have indeed very few cases inside their respective territories.
If you have any doubt about this point, please leave a comment. I will do my best to explain it.
US and France, by these standards, are truly third-world nations.
- African nations have been performing much better than Europe, with higher rates of recoveries and very low rates of deathly outcomes because they implemented the right decisions on time.
- Countries like Angola implemented quarantine measures immediately after the first confirmed case.
- Countries like Mozambique did it even before the first confirmed case!
- In Western countries like Belgium (with 11,5 million people), where such kind of measures are yet to be taken, there are now 500 deaths per day. For instance, during the worst day in China, a country with 1,440 million people, only 150 persons died because of COVID-19.
Where, on April 11th (today), there still are countries like the Netherlands or Sweden without real quarantine measures.
1 - List of countries and territories that got their first cases from China, until February 20th (before the Italian/European outbreak):
29 countries and territories - Thailand, Japan, South Korea, the US, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Vietnam, France, Nepal, Australia, Canada, Malaysia, Cambodia, Germany, Sri Lanka, Finland, UAE, India, Italy, the Philippines, Russia, Spain, Sweden, the UK, Belgium, Egypt, Iran;
2 - List of countries and territories that got their first cases from Europe and the US, from February 21st on (when the Italian/European outbreak began):
139 countries and territories - Brazil, Argentina, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Denmark, the Netherlands, Jordan, San Marino, Nigeria, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovenia, Croatia, Iceland, Monaco, Mexico, Ireland, India, Luxembourg, Dominican Republic, Scotland, Andorra, Tunisia, Morocco, Ukraine, Gibraltar, Bosnia and Herzegovina, South Africa, Colombia, Vatican City, Slovakia, Portugal, Wales, Northern Ireland, Czech Republic, Malta, Moldova, Bangladesh, Cyprus, Albania, Bolivia, Jersey Island, Ivory Coast, Cuba, Guatemala, Uruguay, Kosovo, Puerto Rico, Seychelles, El Salvador, Senegal, Cameroon, French Guiana, Saint Barthelemy, Martinique, Maldives, Burkina Faso, Mongolia, French Polynesia, Saint Martin, Gabon, Mayotte, Uzbekistan, Central African Republic, Congo, Zambia, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Bhutan, Costa Rica, Reunion, Guyana, Kenya, Eswatini, U.S. Virgin Islands, Barbados, Bermuda, Fiji, Belize, Myanmar, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla, Jamaica, Saint Vicent and The Grenadines, Saint Lucia, The Gambia, Montserrat, Mauritius, Sint Maarten, Isle of Man, Cape Verde, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Grenada, Dominica, Falkland Islands, Faroe Islands, Peru, Guernsey Island, Panama, Namibia, Equatorial Guinea, Djibouti, Papua New Guinea, Suriname, Aruba, Curaçao, Democratic Republic of Congo, Benin, Tanzania, Liechtenstein, Trinidad and Tobago, Liberia, Poland, Kazakhstan, Ghana, Eritrea, Angola, Sao Tome and Principe, Serbia, Palestine, Venezuela, Chile, Togo, Turkey, Guinea, Mauritania, Greenland, Montenegro, Haiti, Turks and Caicos, British Virgin Islands, Caribbean Netherlands, Northern Mariana Islands, Botswana;
3 - List of countries that got their first cases from China, from February 21st on (when the Italian/European outbreak began):
1 country - Norway
So yes, as I argued in the article The Western Peril 1, Western sinophobia brought the virus from China to the West, and Western murderous nihilism spread it all over the world.
No, not the Chinese. Westerners did it!
And no, don't blame China for not having informed us on time, like most Western MSM do. That's a pure lie.
China did inform WHO and the governments throughout the Word, in early January. The problem is, countries like Vietnam or Nepal listened to what the Chinese authorities told them, while most governments in the West, ruled by morons and/or postmodern jellyfishes, didn't!
In mid-March, Europeans were still playing Champions League, Yankees were still playing NBA, with both going on holidays, on paternalistic and racist voluntourism adventures, and on UN missions (Guine-Bissau got its first 2 cases from foreign employees of the UN Mission to this country) spreading the virus in poorer nations of Africa, and other continents.
Western fault? Yes, definitely.
Yes, westerners spread the virus! Not the Chinese!
Westerners spread the virus, while their governments did all they could to create the perfect conditions for the spreading.
By taking months to react when countries like North Korea or Nepal took a couple of days!
By praising their healthcare system in collapse, based on crappy made-up reports like 2019 Global Health Security Index, created by delusional propagandists working for Western not think tanks like Nuclear Threat Initiative and The Economist Intelligence Unit:
By having previously dismantled their programs to respond to potential epidemics (Sweden is a prime example, as we shall see later).
By refusing to acknowledge the simulations that they themselves had ordered, like the American Crimson Contagion and the British Exercise Cygnus, in which the conclusions were shockingly negative: for many years, these two countries have been lacking everything necessary to fight an epidemic.
For instance, the American Crimson Contagion simulation proved that:
- Federal government lacks sufficient funding to respond to a severe influenza pandemic
- Exercise participants lacked clarity on the roles of different federal agencies, and what information was important to pass on to federal partners
- HHS had issues providing accurate and relevant information to hospitals and other public health organizations
- Confusion between HHS, FEMA, and the Department of Homeland Security on which federal agency would take the lead in the crisis
- The United States lacks the production capacity to meet the demands for protective equipment and medical devices such as masks and ventilators imposed by a pandemic
- States were unable to efficiently request resources due to the lack of a standardized request process
For more on 2019 Global Health Security Index, American Crimson Contagion simulation and the British Exercise Cygnus simulation, please watch the new video-report by Klaas Sijtsma, here on Nomadic Thoughts:
While I write the second part about the Delusional Approach, please take your time to analyze the staggering differences between the US and Europe, on one hand, and Asia and Africa, on the other hand. Give special attention to Palestine or Senegal.
Compare the Western negative figures with the positive figures obtained in nations victims of Western barbarism.
- 0,5% recovering rate in the United Kingdom vs 51,7% recovering rate in Senegal and 48% in Venezuela;
- Western Europe's deaths rates VS Africa's deaths rate;
- Top 15 countries in cases per million and in deaths per million are the US plus 14 European nations.
AFRICA TOP 13
CONTINENTS AND COUNTRIES RANKINGS
U.S.A. & THE WORLD
WORLD TOP 25
Luís Garcia, Thailand